Event Date
Speaker: Aaron Smith, Professor; Gordon Rausser Distinguished Chair, Dept of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley
Title: "Long-Run Forecasting for Climate Policy"
James Bushnell and Aaron Smith
Abstract: Climate policy projections typically deploy deterministic or equilibrium optimization models that produce estimates of single values for each output, rather than probabilistic ranges for those output values. Uncertainty can be tested via scenario analysis, but the selection of scenarios is not based upon any statistical analysis. We aim to produce statistically rigorous distributions of outcomes, rather than rely upon individually selected scenarios. This is ongoing work, exemplified in the attached paper. This talk will focus on our current modeling approach, which uses dynamic factor models and low-frequency time series analysis.
Faculty website (links to UC Berkeley): https://vcresearch.berkeley.edu/faculty/aaron-smith